Impact of Climate Change on Walnut Production in Biara Sub-District

Abstract

In this research is conducted about the impact of climate change on walnut production in Biara Sub-district. Descriptive – analytical method was utilized to obtain the proposed objectives by using SPSS – 16. The predominant objective of this analysis is to illustrate the inevitable impact of climate change on the walnut production in 1973-2017. The results on which the study was based on are Pearson Correlation which demonstrates that there is an indirect correlation between temperature and walnut production, and an equivalent relation with precipitation. For instance, in Multiple Regression Analysis, the impact of temperature and precipitation on small walnut trees is 4%, and on medium walnut trees is 25.8%, whereas on big walnut trees it is 24.8%. Moreover, in Coefficient of Determination, the effect of temperature on small walnut trees is 3.4%, on medium and large walnut trees increase to 18.6% and 24.7% respectively. However, precipitation impact is less than 1%, except medium walnut trees is less than 6%. The apparent wide gaps between temperature and precipitation which affects production is due to low topographic elevation and the presence of 82 springs in the study area.

Additionally, an increase in temperature, a decrease in precipitation and subfreezing temperatures, in other words, chill dates, in spring time, ultimately leads to an increase in hazardous insects such as stem worms and beetle. These issues could be solved through selecting different varieties of walnuts and planting at higher elevation, construct more irrigation projects and regular irrigation, in particular during drought seasons, improving agricultural facilities and importing sufficient pesticides to tackle walnut trees diseases, is also among the precautionary methods.